The geopolitical tension between the United States and Russia escalated rapidly in the past two weeks. Two weeks ago, the U.S. Treasury Department announced fresh sanctions against Russian oligarchs and companies due to “Russia’s malign activity around the globe”. This new sanctions have caused economic pain to Moscow with Russian Ruble and MOEX benchmark index…
The market may have mustered a gain last week, but it was anything but a decisive victory. The indices didn’t clear some key technical resistance, and once again the volume supporting the advance was feeble. This whole thing could still crumble easily enough…ultimately proving it’s not the initial bullish effort that matters, but the one…
Some analysts called for the final low of the correction to have occurred on 4/02, at 2554. I have been reluctant to do this for two principal reasons: 1) The 40-wk. cycle low is still ahead of us — ideally due to bottom sometime in May, and 2) there is an unfilled valid count to…
This week will see a somewhat lighter news agenda than last week, with central bank input expected from Canada and Australia, as well as some crucial economic data from the U.S.A., China, and the U.K. Any further developments regarding Syria may also have an impact. The market will probably be most active on Tuesday. U.S….
The Dow Jones saw its latest correction bottom on March 23rd declining to -11.58% in the BEV chart below. Since then the Dow Jones has oscillated from just below -10% and up to the -8% BEV levels as bulls and bears alike wait to see what is coming their way. So what’s next for…
The Trust Mandate: The behavioural science behind how asset managers really win and keep clients by Herman Brodie and Klaus Harnack (Harriman House, 2018) is a short book (about 130 pages of text). It starts by looking at some seeming anomalies regarding which managers attract the most asset inflows—notably, not necessarily the best performers. A lot…
Ask most people how much a lottery ticket is worth and the most probable answers will be the price of the ticket, the value of the jackpot or simply: “Is it a winning ticket?” The value of a ticket for a forthcoming drawing is none of these. The reason for this is related to a…
GBP/USD is facing 1.4345 resistance. A breakout of this level would indicate that the uptrend from 1.1946 (Oct 7, 2016 low) has resumed, then next target would be at 1.5000 area. Support levels are at 1.3950 and 1.3711, only a break below these levels could signal completion of the uptrend.
In Thursday’s commentary I suggested that the market would follow any big reaction to the XLF ETF and suggested the following course of action should a big move occur. “So how should you use this opportunity to have one day potentially tell us so much about the market, based on one simple ETF? Carefully –…
The CBO projects trillion dollar deficits by 2020 and 2 trillion by 2028. Long History of Growing Debt The Bipartisan Policy Center reports Trillion Dollar Deficits Coming Soon. Here’s Why It Matters. When CBO published its mid-2017 update, the projections were far from rosy. The combination of the baby boomers phasing into retirement and ever rising…
