What’s Next For Russian Stocks?

You have to hand it to Russian President Vladimir Putin.  He had us all guessing. The usually highly visible Russian leader disappeared from public view for a week and half, leading to speculation that he was dead or secretly deposed in a coup.

Russia being Russia, it wouldn't be too shocking if Putin actually had been deposed and replaced with a sinister vodka-swilling robotic decoy. But I digress…

When asked where he had been, his only response was “It's boring without rumors.”

Well, it's never boring with Russian stocks. The Market Vectors Russia ETFMarket Vectors Russia Small Cap ETF (RSXJ) has fared even worse, down over 70% since its launch in 2011.

Russian stocks—like homemade Russian vodka—require a strong stomach.

But to a contrarian value investor, Russian stocks are also hard to ignore. With the single exception of Greece—which may still get booted out of the Eurozone before the end of the year—Russia is the cheapest market in the world.

Now, to be fair, Russian stocks are always cheap owing to Russia's geopolitical risk, its disregard for the rule of law and for the fact that…well…this is the country that was the fountainhead of global communism for over 70 years. Russia's median cyclically-adjusted price/earnings ratio (“CAPE” or “Shiller P/E”) is 7.4, or less than half that of the United States.

Today, Russian stocks are cheap even by Russian standards, trading at a CAPE of just 4.6. That's actually the lowest they've been priced in the history of post-communist Russia.

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