We’re All Hedge Funds Now

As negative interest rates spread from Switzerland, Japan and Germany to the rest of the developed world, people with to invest face some life-defining issues.

Retirees who need to generate 6% to avoid dipping into principal can't get there with bank CDs. Pension funds that have promised an 8% return in order to meet obligations to future retirees can't get anywhere near that with government bonds. Same thing for insurance companies and money market funds, whose models require positive returns with low risk.

This presents these guys with a stark choice: Become something radically different or cease to exist. In effect, they have to become hedge funds.

A retiree, for instance, can either stop being a retiree — that is, go back to work — on invest a lot more aggressively to meet the required 6% return. That means loading up on equities and junk bonds, either blithely because she doesn't know what they are (only that they've been going up) or with trepidation because she's aware that every five or so years these things tend to crash.

Public companies are finding that investing in their current business doesn't pay nearly as well as borrowing money and using the proceeds to buy back stock. Pension funds, meanwhile, have more options, though the end result is the same. They can, like our hypothetical retiree, load up on equities, as Japanese pension funds are reportedly doing…

Japan Pensions Sell Record $46 Billion Bonds to Buy Stocks

(Bloomberg) — Japan's public pension funds, which include the world's biggest, accelerated their push to dump local bonds and invest the money abroad to a record pace.

The $1.1 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund and its smaller peers almost doubled net sales of Japanese government bonds to 5.56 trillion yen ($46 billion) in the fourth quarter, the most in Bank of Japan figures dating back to 1998. They bought an unprecedented 2.39 trillion yen of foreign stocks and bonds. Selling of JGBs and buying of overseas securities has continued for six straight quarters.

GPIF posted its largest investment gain in almost two years last quarter after shifting more money into stocks from Japanese bonds, as it came under government pressure to boost returns to cover payouts for the world's fastest-aging population. The Federation of National Public Service Personnel Mutual Aid Associations, last month said it will boost its investments in foreign stocks and bonds and cut exposure to domestic debt, matching the plan by GPIF.

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