As is evident below, since the frenzied peak of 2873 on January 26, the index has fallen hard twice—on February 8 (2581) and March 23 (2588). Self-evidently, both times the momo traders and robo-machines came roaring back with a stick-save which was smack upon the 200-DMA.

But here's the thing. The blue line below ain't no Maginot Line; it's just the place where the Pavlovian dogs of Bubble finance have “marked” the charts. And something is starting to smell.

In fact, it's starting to smell very much like an earlier go-round when Pavlov's 200-DMA barkers had enjoyed a prolonged ascent—-only to find an unexpected cliff-diving opportunity at the end.

Indeed, the bounce from the October 8, 1998 interim bottom of 960 was nearly parabolic, rising by 57% to the March 2000 top.

That latter point might sound vaguely familiar. That's because the rebound from the February 11, 2016 interim bottom (1829) to the January 26th top (2873) this year was, well, 57%!

Of course, we don't cotton to numbers magic, but we do have some decent regard for history, logic and the politico-economic facts of life. And on that score, it would appear to us that what transpired last time may be a walk in the park compared to what present circumstances may bring.

20% from its peak, and then tumbled deep into bear market territory from there.