Ripples In The Global Pond

There were many, frankly ignorant, voices in the UK that claimed that the EU needed the UK far more than the UK needed the EU in the run-up to the referendum (and since). They believed that no sooner was the vote to leave taken than the powers in “Brussels” would be pleading with the British to take a no strings attached, free trade deal which would grant Britain the best of the single market without it having to pay a membership subscription or accept the free movement of EU citizens. These people were simply deluded. It has been made abundantly clear from the EC (which is based in Brussels, but isn't the overarching nerve centre of the Federal European super state which only exists in their fevered imaginations) and the heads of national government that the UK's continuing access to the single market comes at the price of acceptance of the rights of EU citizens to live and work in the UK and contribution to the common coffers.

Unless the UK enjoys continued full access to the single market, the City of London will lose a critical advantage known as “passporting”. This arrangement allows non-UK (non-EU) businesses with a London HQ to trade financial services with the rest of the EU without hindrance and has helped cement the position of London as one of the foremost financial centres in the world. Clearly, other European financial centres, such as Paris or Frankfurt would be delighted to fill the gap should UK based financial firms find they could no longer trade with the EU from the UK; a fact that could well shape post Article 50 negotiations against the UK position (whatever that may eventually be).

Bankers in the US are pressuring Jacob Lew, US Treasury secretary to try to ensure that Brexit negotiations are transparent to help market stability. This will be a tall order as British PM Theresa May won't even discuss them with the UK parliament for fear of compromising her bargaining position! In view of the role of London as a hub of global finance, the bankers believe that the consequences of Brexit will be significant, affecting not just the UK but the wider financial world. They point out that millions of people in the US work for UK or EU companies, so the Brexit process is of direct concern in the US, if for no other reason than that.

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