Written by Gary
Premarkets were up +0.8% this morning with noticeable volume which translated into a gap up at the opening. Markets opened in the +0.8% range on high volume setting new historic highs for the DOW and the SP500.
By 10 am the Nasdaq was within 10% of its historic highs set in 2000 and above its historical closing high.
Our medium term indicators are leaning towards sell portfolio of non-performersat the opening and the short-term market direction meter is very bullish. We remain mostly conservatively bullish, neutral in other words. Right now now I am getting very concerned any downtrend could get very aggressive in the short-term and volatility may also promote sudden reversals. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at 25.63. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period and I hope you have returned your ‘dogs' to the pound.
Having some cash on hand now is not a bad strategy as market changes are happening everyday. As of now, I do not see any leading indicators that are warning of a ‘long-term' reversal in the near-term. There may be one later in 2015, but any market fluctuations we see now are more of a internal market rectification than a bear market.
investing.com members' sentiments are 65 % Bearish (falling from 70% and now rising from 33%).
Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 53.7 % bullish with the status at BearCorrection. I expect a market reversal at or before ~25.0 should the markets start to descend.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at +10.92. But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.
This $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% – 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages.
