Quantitative Forecast

Academic studies have shown that the most reliable way to determine future price movements from past price movements, is by use of momentum.

In the Forex market, a momentum study is best applied to the four major Forex currency pairs by simply checking whether the weekly close is above or below the weekly close 13 weeks ago.

If the price is higher, the statistical edge is in trading that pair long.

If the price is lower, the statistical edge is in trading that pair short.

On this basis, the quantitative momentum forecast for the edge during the coming week is as follows:

Technical Forecast

The question as to whether an experienced chart-reading technical analyst can outperform a simple momentum model warrants a live experiment. Looking at the weekly charts for each of the four major pairs, I will try to determine the line of least resistance, and forecast the directional edge using my own technical analysis.

On this basis, my technical analysis forecast for the edge during the coming week is as follows:

Last week saw some continuing momentum in the direction of the bullish USD trend. However the JPY strengthened more strongly, and has failed to make a new high for several weeks now. It closed this week with a bearish weekly candle, therefore technically I am forecasting a fall in USDJPY over the coming week. Regarding the other pairs, there is no obvious strong support or resistance blocking a continued advance of the USD, so my technical forecast for those pairs follows the quantitative momentum forecast.

Summary

The quantitative and technical forecasts agree with the exception of USD/JPY.

Next week, we will review how these forecasts performed.

Previous Forecasts

These forecasts have been running for 5 weeks.

Both the technical and quantitative forecasts were correct last week in forecasting the directions of all the four major pairs, except the USD/JPY.