After a tumultuous start to 2015, the market appears to be signaling “all clear.” But don't be fooled. Here's how you should be invested for 2015.

Things got off to a rough start this year, selling off pretty hard in the first few trading days of 2015. But the market has since started to show signs of life; the S&P 500 is close to breaking even on the year after a multi-day rally.

Yet, the fact that 2015 got off to a rocky start is still a bad omen. This simple chart is very telling:

Source: MarketWatch

So, when the Dow is down the first two days of the year, there's a 50-50 chance it will end the year down. Sounds like a typical year in the market — until you compare it to the fact that when the Dow is up the first two days, it goes on to finish the year up 75% of the time.

What's more is that there's a number of factors working against the market this year, making a tough year all but certain.

These factors include the idea that the stock market is no longer cheap — trading at a Shiller P/E of 27x, compared to the long-term historical average of 15x. Then, there's the fact that Russia is struggling, economic weakness continues in Europe, Japan's recession has deepened and China's economic growth could be slowing.

So, no, 2015 won't be so easy.

Thus, it is time to focus on companies that tend to perform “well” in a down market (read: stocks that are less volatile and have stable dividends).

But what about rising interest rates? Won't that make dividend stocks less appealing? Well, rising rates appears to be an event we won't have to worry about until 2016.

Two of the market's most respected bond investors have said that rates will remain low in 2015, meaning dividend stocks will remain in favor.

DoubleLine Capital founder, Jeff Gundlach, has said that the 10-year Treasury yield fall below its record low this year. And Bill Gross recently said, “When the year is done, there will be minus signs in front of returns for many asset classes. The good times are over.”

What this means is that for 2015, investors will have to focus on those parts of the market that will continue to reward them with high dividends (read: stable dividend payers, utilities, REITs, etc.)

Granted, 2015 could well prove to be a pleasant surprise — just like 2014 was. Yet, why take the risk? As Warren Buffett said, “Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1.”

It's worth staying safe until we see more stability in the global markets, whether it be from a stable bottom in oil prices or a stronger commitment to quantitative easing in Europe.