E Market Briefing For Thursday, March 1

Neurotic swings persist without any change in Fed policy (other than wishful thinking from Bulls who wistfully would like to return to a ‘good news is bad news' reactive market). That crowd, as I've noted recently, actually hopes the US economy does not respond to fiscal stimulus of any type; because they need very low interest rates prevailing for their market approach to work. The party ended; and they've not sobered up.
 

One of the problems with that approach, which continues what I warned of as their ‘let's fight the Fed' thinking, is that the market has discounted ‘actual' spirited recovery to the extent that it's not just about rates (even if mostly so short-term). Now you will need actual growth (beyond those buybacks that have returned to a degree) in profits to justify these high levels the majority of most-concentrated fund holdings are orbiting near (FANG and more of course).
 

Beef Goulash or Shish-Kabob ?

So why are they ‘fighting the Fed'? They are full-boat long. If you had an economic climate that allowed perpetual low interest rates; many money managers envision just continuing to levitate financial assets (like years prior to the Election). The catch is we already had that move; now we need profits beyond those already discounted, to advance prices; not a return to absurdly low interest rates.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
No tags for this post.

Related posts

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *