Calm Ahead Of Today’s Quad-Witching Which May Lead To Vol Surge

Quad-witching days are volatile on normal days, so in an environment of virtually zero liquidity, in which the market careens from one extreme to another simply based on whether the Fed utters one single word, in which volatility across asset classes is soaring, and in which it is all about igniting algo momentum, today's quadruple witching should be memorable, which is good since there is virtually no macro data today to speak of. 

Here are the specific times for today's expiries:

  • T-Note March'15 Futures Expiry (1701GMT/1201CDT)
  • As Nanex reminds us, during last year's quad witching on March 21, 2014, at 15:45:00, a new record was set for most trades in 1 second in NMS stocks (NYSE, NY-ARCA, NY-MKT and Nasdaq listed stocks and ETFs – approximately 8,000 symbols). The 3rd and 4th most active seconds were also set, at 15:50:00 and 15:55:00 respectively. The 2nd most active second was set at 10:00:00 on September 1, 2011. Today may surpass it.

    If quad witching proves to be a dud, then there is always Europe's partial solar eclipse to fall back on: an eclipse which may strain and test Europe's conventional electricity backup grid as suddenly a substantial portion of Europe's alternative electricity generator grid is about to go, pardon the pun, dark.

    In the final trading session of the week, European equities trade in positive territory with the latest developments regarding the ongoing Greek/Eurogroup negotiations relatively upbeat thus far.

    Yesterday it was reported that following emergency talks with German and French leaders, Greece agreed to submit a reform list in coming days, with Greek PM Tsipras saying that Greece will not have to take recessionary measures. This has subsequently bolstered sentiment so far with accompanying comments from various European premier's conveying that progress is being made. There was an article run in German tabloid Bild saying that Schaeuble expects a Greek exit from the EUR, however, the market isn't paying these uncited reports much credence with German Chancellor Merkel in favour of keeping the troubled nation in the currency union.

    Here is DB's take on last night's Greek events:

    Over in Greece meanwhile, following their meeting at the EU summit, we heard from various European leaders shortly after urging more progress from the Greek side to speed up the work around reform measures. The EU's Juncker, Tusk and Dijsselbloem issued a joint statement following the meeting saying that there is a commitment to speed up the work and that Greece is expected to present full reform measures within days. German Chancellor Merkel was noted as saying that she was disappointed by progress so far and that the next list will be ‘full' on details. French PM Hollande reiterated the need to speed up progress and said that pressure was put on Tsipras to act urgently. Greece's Tsipras was seemingly upbeat meanwhile, saying that all sides were in agreement to restore financing to Greece and that talks are back on track after the process had been somewhat derailed. The push for progress is unsurprising in the face of a deteriorating liquidity position for Greece. Yesterday Greek press Ekathimerini reported that bank deposit outflows were estimated at around €350-400m on Wednesday following the chatter around potential capital controls. The outflows were the most in a single day since February 20th.

    Elsewhere, with newsflow particularly light fixed markets trade relatively unchanged with a lack of upcoming tier 1 US/Eurozone data points.

    Nikkei 225 (+0.4%), Hang Seng (-0.1%) and Shanghai Comp (+1.4%) all swung between losses and gains, with the latter on course to post its biggest weekly gain in 3-months. Heading into the European open, the Shanghai Comp gained over 1% in around 30-mins led by brokerages following a surge in trading volumes, which follows a technical break-out above the 3600 level (yesterday's highs) after an earlier failed attempt. JGBs trade up 9 ticks with outperformance observed in the long-end amid decent two-way flows in the 10yr and longer zone, ahead of the quarterly redemption of JGBs.

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