I was having lunch with a very dear friend of mine yesterday, who is also a very successful financial planner and advisor, who stunned me with an obvious question: “Has the dumb money become the smart money?” 

What we were discussing is that, collectively, the majority of the conversations that we were having with our clients was “when will all of this Fed manipulation end in the next crash?” 

What is more interesting is that, despite the media rhetoric about the surging bull market, the vast majority of our interactions with individuals has been focused on the preservation of their invested capital rather than chasing returns. 

Of course, after two major bear markets, and now just barely getting back to even after 15 years, you can certainly understand their concerns.

As discussed yesterday, the Federal Reserve's monetary interventions have certainly boosted asset prices, but has done little for the real economy. With asset prices excessively extended and valuations at the second highest level in history, it seems to be a “fire in search of a match.”  

This is the crux of this weekend's reading list which is a variety of views on the Fed's latest actions and the potential of a major correction. But this reminds me of something I heard once about the “fear of flying:”

“The good news is that you will be the first to the scene of the crash.” 

1) Bond Market Got It Right by Josh Brown via The Reformed Broker

“This week's FOMC statement and presser provides just one more example demonstrating the power of markets. The nation's top economists had arrived at a consensus for the first Fed Funds rate hike of the cycle to take place at the June 2015 meeting. The bond market, stubbornly, had indicated a traders' consensus that pegged the first rate hike for the September meeting or even later.”