2009 Is Back, And So Is The “Risk-Free” Contango Trade

In many ways what is going on in late 2014 is a carbon copy of events in early 2009: back then the market was melting down every single day. Now, it is also melting, only in reverse. Back then the the interest rate was 0%, as it is now 6 years later (only with $3 trillion more in the Fed's balance sheet), and while then the Fed was scrambling to recover from the disaster of its latest bubble bursting, now it is focused on preventing the same bubble it successfully reflated – the third consecutive in a row – from popping. It will fail as it always does.

Just as notably, like in early 2009 so too now the price of crude oil and the entire commodity complex has disintegrated. Back then nobody doubted it was due to a global depression, while now the collapse is being spun as bullish (because apparently OPEC is oversupplying not just crude but copper, steel, iron ore and all those other commodities which China suddenly no longer wants – for more details speaks to Australia and Brazil). The result of this is that just like in 2009 so now the crude curve has entered full-blown contango. Which means that suddenly storing crude is all the rage as one can effectively pocket a risk-free profit if one can simply buy the product now and sell it at some point in the future for a guaranteed roll up the non-backwardated curve. Just like in 2009, as long as one has a place to store said contango-ed commodity.

As the following snapshot from January 2009 shows, the 12 month, $25 contango back then was without precedent, and as a result there was an epic scramble by hedge funds, banks and various other speculators to store about 100 million barrels on tankers with the intention to sell later. Since the contango was so wide one could easily lease any number of VLCCs and still be profitable on the trade. In fact, a big reason for the renormalization of the crude curve back then was because so many funds jumped on this arb.

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