Once again the cyclical patterns in US macro data are re-emerging as extrapolated hopes fade into mean-reverting credit-impulse-hangover-driven realities. Despite all the hopes and dreams of escape velocity, cleanest-dirty-shirt-wearing economic enthusiasts, year-to-date performance of Citi’s US Macro Surprise index is at its lowest level since 2008. The worst performing US Macro data since 2008… Whether this…
I am going to visit Moscow next week. I was invited by the Moscow State Institute of International Relations to speak on strategic analysis, their term for what Stratfor calls strategic forecasting. Going to Moscow would give me pause under any circumstances. I am a product of the Cold War, and for me, at some…
The ISM Manufacturing survey continues to indicate manufacturing growth expansion with an insignificant decrease in the rate of growth. This survey should be considered good news as it reconfirms a rather strong report last month. Key internals improved. The ISM Manufacturing survey index (PMI) declined from 59.0 to 58.7 (50 separates manufacturing contraction and expansion). This was…
All the analysts chortling over the “equivalent of a tax break” for consumers are about to be buried by an avalanche of defaults and crushing losses as the chickens of financializing oil come home to roost. The pundits crowing about the stimulus effect of lower oil prices on consumers are missing the real story, which…
High Flier Tech Stocks Take A Breather NASDAQ Off 1.34% To 4727 Don’t blame the consumer and retail sales for the sell-off. Investors have done very well this year with simple indexing. The SPY SPDR S&P 500 is up 11.4% YTD, the FBT First Trust Biotechnology Index is up 45.7% YTD and the XLK SPDR Technology Index is up 17.5% YTD. Who needs stock…
The economy has continued to heat up as jobs have been added and consumer confidence has increased. While sites like Monster and CareerBuilder dominate the job search, upstarts are beginning to challenge them for market share. Today’s Bull of the Day is looking to organize the world’s talent by providing specialized insights and relevant connections…
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Is it possible that governments devalue currencies to confiscate capital like taxes? It really does not seem likely that these people have any intention of moving into hyperinflation. They are increasing money supply but at a slower rate than the destructive deflation. It clearly appears governments are in a confiscation mode and it…
Oil resumed declines after jumping from a five-year low and metals retreated amid the highest commodity-price volatility in two years. Asian stocks rebounded and South Korea’s won led emerging-market currencies higher. West Texas Intermediate crude retreated 0.5 percent by 1:04 p.m. in Tokyo, after yesterday’s 4.3 percent surge from its lowest settlement since September 2009….
OPEC meeting went as expected. There was no formal agreement to cut production in the first meeting since the price correction. This part is very similar to 1998. Prices did their thing by falling down and now slowly rebounding. OPEC is making the decision they are not the marginal barrel. Unlike their decision in 1997,…
T2108 Status: 56.5% (2-day decline of 20% qualifies for quasi-oversold status)T2107 Status: 49.4%VIX Status: 14.3General (Short-term) Trading Call: Hold bullish positions but start taking profits if S&P 500 selling follows through. Aggressive bears can start shorting with stops at new all-time highsActive T2108 periods: Day #30 over 20%, Day #28 over 30%, Day #25 over…
