Here are the currencies and commodities that do well or poorly in April, historically. Statistics include how often the prices rise or fall, and by how much, on average. Forex Seasonality For April The US Dollar Index (DX) has fallen in 14 of the last 20 years (70%), dropping an average of 0.8% in April. The PowerShares US…
For the last five years the S&P 500 has been dancing up its ascending 200-day moving average (200-DMA), bouncing higher repeatedly whenever the dip-buyers did their thing. Only twice did the index actually break below this seeming Maginot Line: In August 2015, after the China stock crash, and in February 2016, when the shale patch/energy sector hit the wall….
It was a wild week for stocks — a seemingly fitting end to what has been a wild quarter overall. U.S. equities jumped Monday when it appeared fears of a trade war with China may have been overblown. This was followed by a sharp reversal Tuesday, with mega cap technology stocks leading the decline, and…
The Longer-Term Outlook The Packaging index is super-sensitive to the ups and downs of the stock market. It shows the market pullbacks very nicely, and these dips along with the stochastic lows have been good buying opportunities. Based on this chart, I would expect a rally in the general market. Very few stocks have been…
For much of 2017, hedge funds – most of which again underperformed both their benchmark and the broader market – complained that they were not generating alpha for one reason: there was no volatility. Well, they got their wish in spades last month when after months of record low, single-digit VIX, equity vol exploded resulting in a 3.9%…
January 2018 marked the best start to a year for Wall Street in more than three decades, with a series of record highs. This is primarily thanks to an uptick in economies around the world, strong corporate earnings, booming trade, the new tax legislation, jump in oil prices, and a weak dollar (read: Market at New…
General Electric (GE) was the worst performer in the Dow, with selling all fall, and being the worst again this quarter. It was a dud in the S&P 500 as well, even though the stock saw a late-March surge on hopes that Warren Buffett may buy a stake in the company. Yet while GE bulls are few and…
Recent Articles/Videos JD.com Update — An update on where we think JD.com can go from here. Red Teaming — A review of one of the most important analysis techniques we utilize at Macro Ops. Articles I’m reading Sri Thiruvadanthai wrote a fantastic post on monetary policy feedback loops and instability. Anybody who has studied Soros knows…
The stock market is at record highs and people with FICO scores as low as 500 are once again happily obtaining mortgages. Not only that, but these mortgages are once again being securitized and are in demand by yield chasers. All of the elements that are necessary for the 2008 subprime crisis to repeat itself…
As many of you know, every month I like to highlight several stocks I am considering adding to my portfolio for my monthly buy(s). Looking forward towards April, I realize that I have way more than a “few” names I am considering adding to my portfolio. The recent market volatility we have been witnessing the…
