Monthly Archives: September 2015

Chicago PMI Unexpectedly Dives To Negative Territory; Production

The Chicago PMI is in negative territory, plunging to 48.7 from a prior reading of 54.4 and a Bloomberg Consensus Estimate of 53.6.   Giant swings are common enough for the Chicago PMI which collapsed nearly 6 points in September to a sub-50 reading of 48.7. This indicates slight monthly contraction in the Chicago region’s composite activity. New…

ISM Manufacturing Index: September 2015 Preview

The ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to fall to 50.6 in tomorrow’s update for September vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The prediction is fractionally above the neutral 50.0 mark. The estimate still translates into a forecast for growth for this benchmark of economic activity…

Credit Follows The Dollar

Written by Jeffrey Snider Alhambra Goodnight Janet; Credit Follows The ‘Dollar’ Now On this side of the “dollar” world, credit markets have all but written Janet Yellen into irrelevance. Despite her pleas (because of?) last week, there isn’t any part of money dealing or fixed income that is taking her “certainty” about recovery and “inflation”…

Bull Of The Day: Herman Miller

Earnings estimates have been rising for Herman Miller (MLHR – Snapshot Report) after the company delivered strong fiscal 2016 first quarter results. Not only did sales and earnings beat expectations, management provided Q2 EPS guidance above consensus. It is a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stock. The valuation picture looks very reasonable too with shares trading at just 13x…

EC Reflections

Last Saturday marked ten years I’ve had the honor of contributing to Econbrowser, at the generous invitation of Jim Hamilton (here are his thoughts on ten years of Econbrowser). What follows are some thoughts on what I’ve learned during that time. The current account imbalance was the topic of my first post in September 2005. At the…

Commodity Crisis Pressures New Zealand Dollar

Tumbling Milk Prices Force RBNZ To Drop Rates Global Commodity Deflation Impacting Export Economy NZDUSD Facing Further Downside in Response to Deteriorating External Conditions What started as commodity deflation has turned into a full blown commodity crisis as a tidal wave of bad news impacts the outlook.  Comments from China about an expected drop in…

Window Dressing Wednesday – Don’t Be Fooled By False Profits

So many things to talk about today.   None of it really matters as it’s the last day of the month and windows have to be dressed and already yesterday’s losses are more than reversed with 1% pre-market (low-volume) gains that are taking us back to our weak bounce lines, which remain: Dow 16,200 (weak) and 16,650 (strong)  S&P 1,900 (weak) and 1,950 (strong)  Nasdaq 4,550 (weak) and 4,700 (strong)…