As global trade tensions play havoc with the financial markets, one strategy is to consider stocks with relatively large domestic sales exposure. This is the tactic recommended by Goldman Sachs. “Below the surface of the market, trade conflict would benefit the performance of the most domestic-facing U.S. stocks relative to the most foreign-facing firms,” the…
Trump says US and China will remain friends and China will take down trade barriers because it’s the right thing to do. President Xi and I will always be friends, no matter what happens with our dispute on trade. China will take down its Trade Barriers because it is the right thing to do. Taxes…
OIL FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST: NEUTRAL Talking Points: Crude oil prices hurt by sentiment declines, Trump ordered consideration of more China tariffs Next week brings typical event risk such as EIA inventories and even March’s US inflation data Atypical events include the monthly OPEC oil market report and International Energy Forum Crude oil prices came under pressure this past…
This week we’ll begin with our monthly and weekly forecasts of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of our forecast is based upon our research of the past 16 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results: Trading the two currencies that are trending the most strongly over the…
AT40 = 37.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 40.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 21.5Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary via GIPHY The week ended badly with a 2.2% drop in the S&P 500 (SPY). The week began with the exact same loss. Between the bookends market participants breathed…
Four fast figures facts: As depicted above in the Scoreboard through these first 14 weeks of 2018, Gold’s weekly closes have been tightly arrayed between 1314 and 1349. That’s all: a range of 35 points, (or +2.7% from low-to-high). Thus price sits tight despite so many plights from tariffs and thievery to a stock market…
Readers know that I have beaten this drum all too often. Gold’s major fundamental driver is declining or negative real rates. There is a strong inverse correlation because Gold is money. That’s what JP Morgan said and he’s far more qualified to understand than quotable celebrities like Mark Cuban. But I digress. When real rates…
Didn’t we just leave this party? Having toyed with what could have turned into an ugly meltdown just a week ago, for a short while it looked like the bulls may get to work again and rekindle the bigger rally. Traders aren’t quite ready for that to happen though, hitting the “sell” button hard…
“While the Canadian goods trade deficit was smaller than expected by consensus, that’s not to say January’s trade report was good. The deterioration of two-way trade, i.e. sinking real exports and imports, is not a positive development because it points to softening demand both at home and abroad” (National Bank of Canada, March 7, 2018),…
The increase in equity market volatility preceded the escalation of trade tensions, but now the latter appears to be stymieing attempts to stabilize the former. The equity market was its own dynamics, and last year’s low volatility was an anomaly and payback, as in reversion to mean, is painful. Following the list of the specific Chinese…
