Author Archives: Darren Marchal

The Short That Keeps On Giving?

Among the list of stock selection and trading ideas maintained at the TSI web site there was, until the week before last, a Tesla (TSLA) put option position. The position was exited — and a large profit recorded — after the stock’s recent plunge from well above $300 to the $250s. However, this stock could…

U.S. Soybean Exports Are Fungible

Since China’s leaders appear to have adopted the “madman negotiation technique” to retaliate against the U.S. in the budding trade war between the two nations, we thought it might be interesting to look at the context of the U.S. total exports of soybeans to both China and to the world. The following chart shows the trailing twelve…

Are Soybean Tariffs Irrelevant?

I’ve seen the argument that China’s tariffs on soybeans will have no effect because the soybeans will be relabeled so that US soybeans go to Europe, and soybeans that previously went to Europe go to China, evading Chinese tariffs on US soybeans. John Cochrane makes this point. This seems to have surface appeal in a world…

AUD/CHF Reflects Market Uncertainty

For a Monday it’s been remarkably lively and I wanted to find a chart that not only reflected this, but also captured the indecision and uncertainty that lies behind the current price action. And the chart that best reflects this mood is the daily aud/chf, a currency pair where on one side we have a…

China Attempts To Defuse Trade War

President Xi Jinping pledges reform including greater access to China’s manufacturing and financial sectors. In stark contrast to Trump’s bullying remarks, China’s Xi Promises to Ease Foreign Access. In a speech that officials had billed as a major address, Mr. Xi said Tuesday that plans are under way to accelerate access to the insurance sector, expand…