Monthly Archives: January 2018

Labor Market Tightness Across The United States Since The Great R

from the Cleveland Fed — this post authored by Murat Tasci and Caitlin Treanor Though labor market statistics are often reported and discussed at the national level, conditions can vary quite a bit across individual states. We explore differences in these conditions before and after the Great Recession using a ratio of the number of unemployed workers to…

COTD – The Pin The Pricks The Bubble

Over the past 18-months or so, I have written several articles on the potential for a “market melt-up,” which I updated in last week’s post  “Market Bulls Target S&P 3000.”  “With investors now betting on a sharp rise in earnings to reduce the current levels of overvaluation, there seems to be little in the way of the next major…

Are Wages Poised To Rise Sharply In 2018?

For the first time since the Great Recession my wage equation says average hourly earnings growth should be higher than the actual data shows. Moreover, the fitted value is rising sharply. Each of the three variables in the equation — the unemployment rate, capacity utilization, and inflation expectations — is now pushing the fitted value…

Morning Call For Monday, January 22

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH18 -0.06%) this morning are down -0.07% as the partial shutdown of the U.S. government begins for a third day. The Senate has a vote scheduled for 12pm Eastern time to sees if the impasse can be ended. European markets are up +0.16% at a 2-1/4 month high and EUR/USD moved…

SunCoke Energy Partners Fuels Steelmakers

Basic materials sector includes thirteen industries all tied to the mining or manufacturing of basic commodities. The Basic Materials Industries include: agricultural inputs, aluminum; building materials, chemicals, coal, copper, gold, industrial metals, lumber & wood, paper, silver, specialty chemicals, and steel.  Today I’m reviewing a coal company named SunCoke Energy Partners, L.P. It’s trading ticker…

Doubling Down

Despite speculation that a rise in shale output would test the resolve of the OPEC/Non-OPEC accord, the two players that matter, Saudi Arabia and Russia, appear ready to double down on their production cut strategy. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih and Russian Oil Minister Alexander Novak, in an interview with Bloomberg News, both say that…