EC Irrational

Positioning Indicators at New Extremes We are updating our suite of sentiment data again, mainly because it is so fascinating that a historically rarely seen bullish consensus has emerged – after a rally that has taken the SPX up by slightly over 210% from its low. Admittedly, a slew of such records has occurred in the course…

No Portfolio Changes This Week

Our core market health indicators are mostly improving this week, but at a very slow pace. None of them have improved enough to change any of our portfolio allocations. It isn’t likely that conditions will change by Friday, but I’ll make a post if they do. One positive sign is the NYSE cumulative Advance / Decline…

October 2014 Pending Home Sales Index Declines But Continues To S

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) seasonally adjusted pending home sales index declined marginally – but remains in expansion for the second month after a year in contraction. Our analysis of pending home sales however suggests that November 2014 existing home sales will be better than October’s. Pending home sales are based on contract signings, and existing…

Shift Happens

Back on November 10th, I did my Shifting Sands post, which predicted that oil would, as gold and silver did before it, fall to pieces. I’ve marked the point of my post on the chart below with an arrow. Well, so far, so good, in spite of the Saudis trying to prop things up. I think oil has…

DM Malfunctions Hurting Twitter

Correctly using Twitter Inc. (NYSE:TWTR) is turning out to be a tall order even for people who ought to be proficient at it. The giant social network’s chief financial officer, Anthony Noto, mistakenly tweeted how he was planning to buy a company in December and how he intended to go about it. The message was…