Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Growth Strengthened In May

This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at 20.1 was an increase of 4.3 from the previous month’s 15.8. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of 15.1. The Empire State Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions in New York state. A level above…

Retail Sales Growth Slows As Fuel Costs Rise

Following March’s surprising surge in Retail Sales – after 3 months of declines – April saw spending growth slow notably to just +0.3% from a revised-higher March 0.8% gain. February’s initial decline was also revised to a rise… Core retail sales (ex-autos and gas) also slowed and missed expectations suggesting some spillover from higher gas prices… Under…

Crude Oil – About To Rally 10% More, To $80?

This chart looks at Crude Oil on a monthly basis over the past decade. We applied Fibonacci retracement levels to the highs in 2011 and the lows in 2016 at each (1). The rally of late has Crude attempting to break out above the 50% retracement level (which is the halfway point)of the 2011 highs and the 2016 lows…

Silver: Headed To The Important Resistance Of $16.8

Silver is often referred to as gold’s poorer cousin. In the 70s, when investors were allowed to trade gold, its price gained by triple digits. To investors, this was an interesting period to buy a commodity that is very related to gold, but one that was not very expensive. Silver offered the traders an opportunity…

Morning Call For Tuesday, May 15

Overnight Markets and News Jun E-mini S&Ps this morning (ESM18 -0.27%) are down -0.15% and European stocks are down -0.15% on growth concerns amid higher interest rates. German Q1 GDP grew at a slower than expected pace and Eurozone Mar industrial production rose less than expected, while weakness in government debt markets continued for a…

Don’t Be A Victim Of Recency Bias

Is it possible that stocks aren’t overpriced? Financial adviser Josh Brown raises the possibility, arguing that earnings can grow into their prices. After all, Amazon, Netflix, Nvidia have seemed overpriced to investors for a long time, but their economic performance keeps improving. As Brown puts it, with all of these stocks in the recent past, “[t]he…

Huntsman International: A Catalyst For 25%+ Appreciation

The Goldilocks Economy? Timing this economy has the market on edge. With inflation nearing the Fed’s 2% target, investors seemed relieved that the FOMC decided to hold off on hiking rates. In the ninth year of the 2nd longest expansion in U.S. history, it is surprising to hear the phrase “Goldilocks economy” in the news. Perhaps…

Real Wage Growth Adjusted For Gas Prices

One of the things I note from time to time in my discussions of wage growth is how much its fluctuation in real terms has been affected by gas prices. For example, in the middle of the worst recession in nearly 70 years, real wages actually went up! Why? Because gas prices fell from $4.25/gallon to…