The Trump Tariff plans have an Achilles’ Heel. We know that there are basic weaknesses that can be found in all tariff plans. For example, the consumer in the US is very weak, tariffs have failed in history, etc. But the real weakness of the plans for our time is the global supply chain. As…


As we enter the last half of the year, we should take the measure of how the first half of 2018 stacks up against forecasts made in January. Readers may well recall that the major forecasting groups anticipated relatively strong economic growth for 2018. The IMF called for world GDP to grow at 3.9%, 0.2%…


The start of July and the summer heat wave comes between a week that is caught with the US Independence Day holiday and the World Cup. Most investors logically want to go home and cool off, the noisemakers are hard at work. In fact, July will be anything but a vacation for those watching geopolitics….

Is The Decline Of Coal A National Security Problem?

As the Trump administration seeks to resuscitate the moribund American coal industry, it has decided to invoke “national security” as the justification for a plan to subsidize coal-fired power plants. Three things are notable about the administration’s proposal. First, invoking “national security” has become a favored tool for getting around existing regulations, precedents and the Constitution….

USDCAD Weekly Analysis – Sunday, July 1

USDCAD broke below 1.3180 support, suggesting that the upside movement from 1.2526 had completed at 1.3385 already. A further decline would likely be seen in a couple of weeks and the next target would be at the 1.2850 area. Below this level it would aim the bottom of the price channel on the daily chart….

This Week In Stocks – July 1

Our analysis of the S&P 500 is for stocks to continue their move lower. We believe that the SPX is in the declining phase of its current market cycle. It will likely continue this move, with 2670 as as a conservative projection. A break below the 2677 level would be a break below where SPX…

The Yield Curve Is Already Signaling A Slowdown

Throughout this expansion, I have had a sneaking suspicion that the yield curve (the difference in interest rates between short and long term bonds) would be the indicator most likely to fail. Originally that was because we are in a very non-inflationary period similar to that which prevailed between the 1920’s and 1950’s. After 1929,…