Overview

AAA rated Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) has produced one of the most impeccable and consistent long-term records of fundamental results and growth. No matter whether you are measuring earnings, cash flows or dividends, you will be hard-pressed to find any company in any industry with a more consistent and complete record of operating excellence than Johnson & Johnson.

Consequently, in the minds of many investors, Johnson & Johnson is considered a forever stock. Personally, I can't disagree. However, even with forever stocks there are good and bad times to initiate an investment. For much of 2016 and most of 2017, Johnson & Johnson was a little pricey. However, in 2018 Johnson & Johnson's stock price has been steadily moving towards alignment with intrinsic value. Although I still don't consider it a screaming bargain, I do consider it a reasonable choice given its quality and above-market dividend yield.

Johnson & Johnson: FAST Graphs Analyze out Loud Video

I never invest in a stock simply hoping that it might go up. Instead, I always endeavor to calculate reasonable but specific future return expectations.  Therefore, in the following FAST Graphs Analyze out Loud Video, I will illustrate and calculate reasonable total return calculations and expectations on Johnson & Johnson through calendar year-end fiscal year 2021. Although forecasting future returns will never be perfectly precise, I believe it's imperative that investors have a rational sense and forecast of what a given investment in a specific company might be capable of generating. Stated simply, investors would be wise to run the numbers out to their logical conclusion. In my mind, this represents a significant differentiation between investing versus speculating.