Author Archives: Darren Marchal

Keynesian Economics Is An Artifact Of Cheap Energy

Printing / borrowing money to generate the unsustainable illusion of “growth” sets up the collapse of the entire Keynesian edifice. Of the many delusions of modern economics, perhaps the greatest is that the dominant Keynesian model reflects permanent dynamics of advanced economies. Economics, along with other social sciences, makes an implicit claim that its econometric claims…

Tesla’s Death Spiral

Stanphyl Capital June 2018 letter to investors on Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) The fund was absolutely massacred this month, and it was primarily due to our large short position in Tesla, to which I added on each new piece of negative news, much of which was indicative of the kind of outright fraud (see below) that…

Beware Fallen Angels: One Bank Ponders The Fate Of The European J

Remember Mario Draghi’s “fallen angel” demons? Back in January, the ECB liquidated its entire position in Steinhoff after the company’s bonds plunged following a high profile accounting scandal. That episode was embarrassing for the ECB to the extent it laid bare the inherent dangers in indiscriminately buying up ostensibly “safe” IG corporate bonds. But perhaps more importantly, it…

USD/JPY Forecast July 2-6 – The Rosy Glasses Are Still On

Dollar/yen made a cautious move to the upside as trade war fears were subsided quite quickly. Can this last? A busy start to the week features the FOMC Minutes, the NFP, some surveys from Japan, and the recurring theme of trade wars. USD/JPY fundamental movers – Some relief in the trade wars The Trump Administration made threats against the…

Crypto Space Deep-Sixed

Even with the recent “pop” in $BTC prices, I wanted to share a few bearish charts. I’ve been yammering on about cryptos more than is necessary, I suspect (I’ve never owned a single one), but as a chartist I’ve been captivated at all the right triangles showing up, as with Bitcoin: In some cases, the…

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The Trump Tariff plans have an Achilles’ Heel. We know that there are basic weaknesses that can be found in all tariff plans. For example, the consumer in the US is very weak, tariffs have failed in history, etc. But the real weakness of the plans for our time is the global supply chain. As…