Author Archives: Darren Marchal

September, Q3, And YTD 2018 Asset Class Performance

Below is a snapshot of total returns for various asset classes through the first three quarters of 2018. In September, we saw gains for the S&P 500 and Dow 30, but we saw declines for the Nasdaq 100 and small-caps. The Technology sector was also down in September along with Financials, Materials, and Utilities. Outside…

Euronet Jumps Following Visa Rule Change For ATM Transactions

Shares of Euronet Worldwide (EEFT ) rallied during the session after the company acknowledged press reports of Visa International’s (V) rule change to allow dynamic currency conversion on global ATM transactions. WHAT’S NEW: Euronet acknowledged in a press release this morning the media reports that Visa notified its members on September 27, 2018, that it…

October 2018 Economic Forecast Index Declines

Econintersect’s Economic Index (EEI) moderately declined but still remains well into territory associated with normal expansions. Analyst Summary of this Economic Forecast Overall the decline this month is significant. Last month we warned that we are seeing mixed trend lines – which usually happens when there is an overall reversal in trends. The forward-looking leading…

Earnings And Guidance Trends This Season

More than 1,500 stocks have now reported Q2 earnings, and as shown below, the percentage of them that have beaten consensus EPS estimates is down slightly this quarter versus the last two quarters. Forward guidance numbers have been more positive than negative thus far. The chart below shows the spread between the percentage of companies…

It’s A Mad Mad Oil World

Oil prices are rising. We have a falling U.S. oil rig count and a surprise drop in Saudi oil production, against a backdrop of increasing geopolitical risk. Baker Hughes’ oil rig was countdown two, gas rig count dipped by three. Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia pumped around 10.29 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude…

Morning Call For Monday, August 6

Overnight Markets and News Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU18 +0.05%) this morning are up +0.11% at a 1-week high and European stocks are up +0.56%. Strength in energy producers is leading the overall market higher with Sep WTI crude oil (CLU18 +1.23%) up +1.47% after Saudi Arabia said it cut its crude production to 10.3 million…

Consumer ETFs Point To Stock Market’s Defensive Posture

The consumer has always been a good gauge of the U.S. economy. Similarly, investors can gauge the health of the stock market by looking at consumer stocks. One way to gauge this is to look at the ratio of the Consumer Discretionary Sector ETF(NYSEARCA: XLY) to the Consumer Staples Sector ETF (NYSEARCA: XLP). The former represents growth and a…

A Different Look At The US Yield Curve

The US yield curve, as indicated by the spread between the 10-year and 2-year T-Note yields, made a new 10-year extreme over the past fortnight, meaning that it recently became the ‘flattest’ it has been in more than 10 years. While this may indicate that the boom is nearing its end, it definitely indicates that…

US REITs Surged Last Week While Foreign Real Estate Tumbled

Securitized real estate shares dominated last week’s performance rankings at the extremes for the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange-traded products. US real estate investment trusts (REITs) posted the highest return for the week through August 3 while foreign REITs/real estate suffered the biggest loss. Vanguard Real Estate (VNQ) popped 3.2% last week, the…

Federal Deficits Are Worse Than You Think

Voters tend to be rationally ignorant. Since a single vote does not matter, for most potential voters the cost of being politically well informed is greater than the benefit of being knowledgeable about political affairs. Therefore it’s rational for most voters to be ignorant regarding political issues. A main reason for the high cost of being…